The Chinese PVC market has remained relatively stable in the third week of October 2024, with no significant upward movement in prices due to persistently weak demand. Producers are keeping their ex-works prices unchanged, even though futures markets have shown a slight decline, indicating a cautious stance among both buyers and sellers.

Falling Futures and Low Spot Demand
PVC futures have been on a downward trend, reflecting the overall sluggishness in the market. This decline in futures is closely linked to the ongoing economic uncertainty in China and the broader region. While producers have kept their factory prices steady, traders have been forced to lower their spot prices slightly to generate sales, as buyers are hesitant to make large purchases. This wait-and-watch approach has been driven by both macroeconomic concerns and uncertainty in global markets.

Impact of Domestic Economic Slowdown
China’s economy has been showing signs of slowing growth, especially in its manufacturing and real estate sectors. As a key consumer of PVC, the construction and infrastructure sectors have not rebounded as expected, leading to a drop in demand for construction-related materials, including PVC. This has resulted in ample supply and limited pressure on prices despite the global geopolitical tensions that are influencing other regions.

Producer Strategies and Export Market Pressures
Chinese PVC producers have been maintaining their ex-works prices, relying on their established domestic and export networks to balance their supply. However, competition from neighboring countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, is intensifying. These markets are also grappling with oversupply and lower demand, further limiting China’s export opportunities. In response, producers are exploring ways to optimize costs internally and maintain price competitiveness, though they have not yet resorted to drastic price cuts.

Global Supply Chain and Middle East Geopolitical Tensions
Global PVC markets, including China, are keeping a close eye on the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the risk of disruptions  in oil and gas supplies. The potential for an Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure has raised concerns of a global energy crisis. Although Chinese producers have not yet factored in a significant price increase related to these risks, any escalation could have a ripple effect on PVC production costs, as energy prices influence the cost of raw materials such as ethylene.

Outlook for the Chinese PVC Market
Looking ahead, there are a few key factors that could influence the Chinese PVC market in the coming weeks:

Domestic Policy Adjustments: If the Chinese government introduces new economic stimulus measures to boost infrastructure or real estate development, it could lead to an uptick in PVC demand. This could strengthen the domestic market and push prices higher.

Export Dynamics: Should the global demand for PVC improve, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, Chinese producers could find relief through increased exports. However, for now, export demand remains muted.

Geopolitical Impact: If tensions in the Middle East escalate further, the impact on global crude prices could affect production costs in China. While the country is currently benefiting from relatively stable input costs, any significant rise in oil prices would likely lead to higher costs for PVC producers, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.

In summary, while the Chinese PVC market remains relatively stable with no immediate price increases, the situation is delicate. Producers and traders alike are exercising caution, balancing domestic economic pressures with global supply chain factors. Buyers are advised to remain vigilant, as external factors such as energy prices and export market conditions could lead to sudden changes in pricing trends.

RIL has introduced the XYZ Discount Scheme for PP for the month of October 2024
X - Rs. 2/Kg  
Y - Rs. 2.75/Kg 
Z - Rs. 3.5/Kg  

Effect Month: October 2024.

JINDAL POLY FILMS LIMITED - BOPP FILM PRICE INCREASED.

TT - Price UPRs. 2/Kg.
NTT - Price UP Rs.2/Kg.

Price Effect Date From 22 October 2024.

HPL - Haldia Petrochemicals Ltd. - HPL has announced the final incentive amounts for the X , Y & Z scheme for PP & PE lifting.
For PP:
X: Lifting ≥ 80% of PP CCS: Rs. 2/Kg
Y: Lifting ≥ 100% of PP CCS: Rs. 2.5/Kg
Z: Lifting ≥ 125% of PP CCS: Rs. 2.75/Kg

For PE:
X: lifting - 100% of PE CCS: Rs. 1.75/Kg
Y: lifting - 125% of PE CCS: Rs. 2.5/Kg

IOCL - Indian Oil Corporation Limited - PP, HDPE & LLDPE POLYMER PRICE UPDATE

PP - No change 
HDPE - No change 
LLDPE - No change 

Price Effect Date From 17 October 2024.

Brent Crude Oil Open Lower 0.33% at 74.47 $/BBL

74.43 $/BBL - Current
74.22 $/BBL - Closed Yesterday
74.47 $/BBL - Open

WTI Open Lower  0.42% at 70.69 $/BBL

70.53 $/BBL - Current
70.39 $/BBL - Closed Yesterday
70.69 $/BBL - Open

GAIL has introduced an additional CIS-linked post-sale discount scheme for October 2024.

 ≥100% of MCQ: X
 ≥115% of MCQ: Y
 ≥125% of MCQ: Z

Note:This scheme is applicable to both A and B Grade.The upper cap for MCQ in October 2024 under CIS 2024-25 has been increased from 125% to 150%.

The discount rate ‘X’ will also apply to off-grades for lifts of 1 MT or more from 1 to 31 October  2024.

Brent Crude Oil Open Lower 0.61% at 74.71 $/BBL

74.46 $/BBL - Current
74.25 $/BBL - Closed Yesterday
74.71 $/BBL - Open

WTI Open Lower  0.49% at 70.93 $/BBL

70.78 $/BBL - Current
70.58 $/BBL - Closed Yesterday
70.93 $/BBL - Open

JINDAL POLY FILMS LIMITED - BOPP FILM PRICE DECREASED.

TT - Price Down by Rs. 6/Kg
NTT - Price Down by Rs. 8/Kg

Price Effect Date From 16 October 2024.

RIL - Reliance Industries Limited - PET POLYMER PRICE INCREASED

PET -  Up by Rs.1/Kg

Price Effect Date From 15 October 2024.

MRPL Announced PP Incentive Scheme of October 2024

For >=60% & <80% of MQ - MG1
For >=80% & <100% of MQ - MG2
For >=100% of MQ - MG3 

Notes:

The lifting of Prime, NP, and OG grades is eligible for the discounts specified above.
The previous cap of 120% on the monthly incentive for October 2024 has been lifted. Customers who exceed 120% of MQ will qualify for the monthly incentive.
For customers lifting ≥ 100% of MQ, the entire volume (P, NP, and OG grades) in the final slab is eligible for MG3 discounts.
Discount amounts for MG1, MG2, and MG3 will be announced in the first week of November 2024.

Effect Month: October 2024.

HPL - Haldia Petrochemicals Ltd. - HPL has announced the final incentive amounts for the X & Y scheme for PE lifting.
The slab-wise discounts are on the lifting of PE based on the October 2024 CCS:
X: lifting - 100% of PE CCS 
Y: lifting - 125% of PE CCS 
Final amounts for X and Y will be announced at the end of October 2024.

OPAL -  ONGC Petro Additions Limited Announced PE & PP Incentive scheme- Incentive scheme for the month of October 2024 

PE:- AMSP order booking in October 2024

PP:- AMSP order booking in October 2024 
Discount in Rs/Kg.
≥80%: α1
≥100%: α2

HDPE 
Discount in Rs/Kg.
≥80%: β1    
≥100%: β2
≥115%: β3

LLDPE
Discount in Rs/Kg.
≥80%: γ1  
≥100%: γ2
≥115%: γ3

Effect Month: October 2024.

Brent Crude Oil Open Lower 2.97% at 75.22 $/BBL

74.81 $/BBL - Current
77.46 $/BBL - Closed Yesterday
75.22 $/BBL - Open

WTI Open Lower  2.2% at 71.66 $/BBL

71.04 $/BBL - Current
73.83 $/BBL - Closed Yesterday
71.66 $/BBL - Open

HPL - Haldia Petrochemicals Ltd. - HPL has announced the final incentive amounts for the X/Y/Z scheme for PP lifting.
X1: lifting - 80% of PP CCS 
Y1: lifting - 100% of PP CCS 
Z1: lifting  - 125% of PP CCS 
Final amounts for X1, Y1, and Z1 will be announced at the end of October 2024.